Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-235).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joshua Dobbs's 70.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a a substantial gain in his passing accuracy over last season's 62.4% rate.
The Bengals defense has been torched for the 9th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In this week's game, Joshua Dobbs is predicted by the model to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.8.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.

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