Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to attempt 33.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in football.

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