Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+205/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.1% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Joshua Dobbs checks in as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 62.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 25th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL against the Saints defense this year (62.9% Adjusted Completion%).
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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