Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-236/+176).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to attempt 31.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Joshua Dobbs has been among the least accurate QBs in football this year with a 57.9% Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.

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