Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.9% run rate.
In this week's game, Joshua Dobbs is anticipated by the projection model to notch the 7th-most carries out of all QBs with 6.3.
After accounting for 13.8% of his team's rush attempts last season, Joshua Dobbs has had a larger role in the ground game this season, currently sitting at 20.8%.
Joshua Dobbs has averaged 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to QBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football last year in run blocking.

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