Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The projections expect Joshua Dobbs to garner 5.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
After accounting for 13.8% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Joshua Dobbs has had a larger role in the run game this year, currently sitting at 19.8%.
Joshua Dobbs has generated 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
Joshua Dobbs profiles as one of the top quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 4.76 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 39.3% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been very good this year, profiling as the best in the league.