Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
After comprising 13.8% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Joshua Dobbs has had a larger role in the running game this season, now accounting for 20.3%.
Joshua Dobbs has averaged 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (95th percentile).
With a terrific total of 5.17 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Joshua Dobbs rates among the leading running quarterbacks in football this year.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Joshua Dobbs to accrue 5.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance: the 5th-most among all QBs.

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