Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
In this game, Joshua Dobbs is predicted by our trusted projection set to notch the 4th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 5.5.
After making up 13.8% of his offense's carries last year, Joshua Dobbs has been called on more in the running game this year, now sitting at 19.4%.
With a fantastic total of 34.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (92nd percentile), Joshua Dobbs places among the top running QBs in the league this year.
Joshua Dobbs's ground effectiveness (6.26 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (83rd percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The Saints linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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