Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to garner 4.7 carries in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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