Joshua Dobbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.3% run rate.
In this contest, Joshua Dobbs is forecasted by the projections to accumulate the 5th-most carries among all QBs with 5.7.
After comprising 13.8% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Joshua Dobbs has been called on more in the running game this year, now making up 19.4%.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) since they be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football last year in run support.
The Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.

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