Joshua Dobbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The projections expect Joshua Dobbs to garner 5.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
After accounting for 13.8% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Joshua Dobbs has had a larger role in the run game this year, currently sitting at 19.8%.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 39.3% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been very good this year, profiling as the best in the league.

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