Joshua Dobbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.0% run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Joshua Dobbs isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 13.8% of his team's carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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