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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Broncos being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

At a mere 27.51 seconds per play, the Denver Broncos offense checks in as the 8th-quickest paced in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season.

While Josh Reynolds has been responsible for 11.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Denver's passing offense this week at 17.2%.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (61.6%).

The Steelers safeties project as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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