Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Reynolds's 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a remarkable improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 68.1% figure.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63%) to WRs this year (63.0%).

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