Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Reynolds's receiving performance has gotten better this season, accumulating 3.8 yards per game vs a measly 2.8 last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack this week (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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