Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.6% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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