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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.6% in games he has played).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
  • The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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