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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their typical game plan.

The Broncos have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 65.6% pass rate.

The projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.65 seconds per snap.

Josh Reynolds's 37.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 27.8.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the strong New York Jets defense has surrendered a feeble 99.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the best in the league.

The Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.17 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The Jets linebackers rank as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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