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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.

After accumulating 53.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Reynolds has shown good development this year, currently sitting at 62.0 per game.

Josh Reynolds's 43.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 32.4.

As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.8%) versus wideouts this year (61.8%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

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