Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Reynolds has accounted for a whopping 21.9% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among WRs.
Josh Reynolds's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.1% to 75.9%.
Josh Reynolds's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, notching 12.31 yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.30 figure last year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.94 seconds per play.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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