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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 128.8 offensive plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 59.7 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.7 per game) this year.

Josh Reynolds's pass-game efficiency has improved this year, averaging 10.96 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.30 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 57.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

After averaging 53.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Reynolds has significantly declined this season, now boasting 42.0 per game.

Josh Reynolds comes in as one of the worst WRs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.

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