Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Reynolds has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (87.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (64.7%).
Josh Reynolds has notched many more air yards this year (83.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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