Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to garner 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense this week (21.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.4% in games he has played).
Josh Reynolds has totaled significantly more air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 135.0) to wide receivers this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus WRs this year (59.7%).

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