Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-165/+131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (23.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).
Josh Reynolds has received a whopping 26.3% of his offense's air yards this year: 75th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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