Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+106/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Reynolds has totaled many more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be much less involved in his offense's passing attack this week (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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