Josh Reynolds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-464).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -359 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -464.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Reynolds has notched many more air yards this year (83.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Josh Reynolds's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a less important option in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.