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Josh Reynolds
NFL · Player Props
Josh Reynolds
WR · Detroit Lions
Receiving TD
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022 Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC
NFL Props Josh Reynolds Receiving TD

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-464).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -359 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -464.

Favors Over
  • The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Josh Reynolds has notched many more air yards this year (83.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • Josh Reynolds's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 34.7.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a less important option in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
  • The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
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