Josh Reynolds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-346).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +223.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Josh Reynolds has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (31.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (60.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (60.2%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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