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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-373).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +241 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.

Josh Reynolds has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.6% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Josh Reynolds has totaled significantly more air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).

Josh Reynolds's 42.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 34.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus WRs this year (59.7%).

The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Detroit Lions O-line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

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