Josh Reynolds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-244).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Reynolds has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Josh Reynolds has received a whopping 26.3% of his offense's air yards this year: 75th percentile among WRs.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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