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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+439/-1009).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -745 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1009.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

Josh Reynolds has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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