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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+371/-749).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -706 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -749.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Josh Reynolds has accumulated far more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).

Josh Reynolds's 43.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Josh Reynolds's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 54.9% to 68.0%.

Josh Reynolds grades out in the 81st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.33 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be much less involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (16.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.2% in games he has played).

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).

The New York Jets defense has given up the 7th-least passing TDs in the league to wide receivers: 0.77 per game this year.

The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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