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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+357/-703).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -614 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -703.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
  • Josh Reynolds has accrued far more air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • Josh Reynolds's 42.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 34.7.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.6% in games he has played).
  • The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.
  • The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
  • The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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