Josh Reynolds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+357/-703).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -614 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -703.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Josh Reynolds has accrued far more air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Josh Reynolds's 42.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.6% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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