Josh Reynolds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+433/-984).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -825 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -984.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Reynolds has totaled many more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Josh Reynolds's 45.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a less important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (11.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.4% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.