Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke.
The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
Josh Palmer has run a route on 85.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 10th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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