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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.

The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.

Josh Palmer has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this year, playing on just 68.2% of snaps compared to 79.0% last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 9th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.81 seconds per snap.

Josh Palmer's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season's 3.8 figure.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Denver's CB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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