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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.

Josh Palmer has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this season, playing on just 66.4% of snaps compared to 79.0% last season.

The Falcons pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (73.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Josh Palmer's receiving performance has diminished this year, compiling just 2.3 adjusted receptions vs 3.8 last year.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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