Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+136/-178).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -178.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Josh Palmer's 66.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 62.8% figure.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a measly 55.0 per game on average).
Josh Palmer's 74.0% Route% this year marks a substantial decrease in his passing offense workload over last year's 86.3% rate.
In regards to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
Josh Palmer's 2.3 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 3.8 mark.

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