Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
With a top-tier 79.6% Snap% (79th percentile) this year, Josh Palmer has been among the running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Josh Palmer's play as a receiver has worsened this season, accumulating just 3.3 adjusted receptions vs 4.4 last season.
Josh Palmer's 57.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a meaningful reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 72.2% mark.

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