Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The the Chargers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Josh Palmer's 72.3% Route% this season shows a a material decrease in his pass attack usage over last season's 85.7% figure.
Josh Palmer's 2.7 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.4 mark.
Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 51.3%.

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