Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Josh Palmer has run fewer routes this season (83.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (39.1%).
Josh Palmer's pass-catching performance improved this season, accumulating 3.3 yards per game compared to a measly 2.2 last season.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Josh Palmer's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 64.1%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.8%).
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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