Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-170/+140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (73.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (73.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 63.7%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.