Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.
Josh Palmer has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this season, playing on just 66.4% of snaps compared to 79.0% last season.
Josh Palmer's 10.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents an impressive gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 8.6 figure.
The Falcons pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (73.8%).

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Josh Palmer has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (67.0 per game).
Josh Palmer's 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year represents a remarkable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 51.0 rate.
Josh Palmer's 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a meaningful diminishment in his efficiency in space over last season's 5.3% mark.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.

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