Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-135/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
After averaging 57.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Palmer has posted big gains this season, currently sitting at 78.0 per game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Josh Palmer's 72.3% Route% this season shows a a material decrease in his pass attack usage over last season's 85.7% figure.
Josh Palmer has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 51.3%.

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