Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Josh Palmer has run fewer routes this season (83.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (39.1%).
Josh Palmer has totaled many more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer has posted many more receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Josh Palmer's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 64.1%.
Josh Palmer's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 6.75 yards-per-target compared to a 8.27 mark last year.
The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 127.0) versus wideouts this year.

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