Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (73.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (73.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, surrendering 9.07 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 63.7%.
Josh Palmer's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, notching a mere 3.47 yards-per-target compared to a 8.27 figure last season.

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