Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 27, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Palmer has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (88.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (39.1%).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) to wideouts this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, giving up 7.72 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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