Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+167/-238).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +201 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Josh Palmer has accumulated far more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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