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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+167/-238).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +201 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).

Josh Palmer has accumulated far more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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