Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-466).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Palmer has compiled far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 17.2.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have incorporated play action on 28.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Josh Palmer's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.9% to 66.3%.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.