Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-305).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +247 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +203.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Palmer's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.2.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
Josh Palmer's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 64.6%.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 10th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.

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