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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-361).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +233 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (17.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.8% in games he has played).

Josh Palmer ranks in the 75th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.29 per game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (73.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (73.8%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.11 per game since the start of last season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.

Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 63.7%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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