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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 2

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-303).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +212 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +203.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (16.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.6% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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